Blood Will Tell

I certainly bombed out as a handicapper this year: none of my three Derby favorites even hit the board, much less won the race. Instead, we had this guy taking the roses.

Congratulations to I'll Have Another! It's okay, I will eat humble pie and just be happy that the race was run fairly uneventfully. The lovely colt Take Charge Indy was injured, but not severely (ankle chip, should be back in training in 6 mos.), and a few other horses had some cuts and bruises, but nothing disastrous, thank God.

I'll Have Another was not really in the spotlight before the race, and obviously wasn't terribly popular with bettors as he went off at 15-1, but his name did come up pre-race as a contender. A lot of that was due to his absolutely sterling pedigree. The main reason this got my attention (most Derby horses sport pedigrees laden with Big Names) was my favorite turf writer Steve Haskin said IHA's was the finest he could recall. Here's the whole quote:

"You never know what tools someone uses to pick their Derby horse, but if you go by pedigree, although there are a number of classy, stamina-laden pedigrees, our favorite is I’ll Have Another. Just look at the Who’s Who of names, both American and European, in his pedigree. From Europe: Nijinsky, Sea Bird, Roberto, Sadler’s Wells, Le Fabuleux, Ribot, and Lyphard. From America: Pleasant Colony, His Majesty, Stage Door Johnny, Hail to Reason, Alydar, Tom Rolfe, Princequillo, Arch, Kris S, Caucasus, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, and Danzig. And how about top-class fillies such as Althea, Quill, Bramalea, and Patelin? There is more stamina and class in this pedigree than any we can ever recall." - Steve Haskin, Bloodhorse.com, 4-May-2012

That is a pretty ringing endorsement, my friends. Too bad I saw it after I wrote my blog, haha! The only stallion I have not heard of on that entire list is Caucasus, but I'm afraid the fillies are all unfamiliar. Might have to look into them just out of curiousity.

Despite the fact that I'll Have Another was able to catch him in the stretch, Bodemeister also ran a terrific race. I really thought he was going to win it wire-to-wire. Before the race I was not on board with him, despite the hype, for the simple reason that no horse has won the Derby who didn't run as a two-year-old since something like 1887. I was skeptical at best. However, as this article says, he set a blistering pace and was still right there at the end. He is definitely one to keep an eye on in the future. Those quotes from Andrew Beyer are rather a bummer, though; I had kept reading about the quality and depth of the field this year, there as 10 horses who could win, how great they were, blah blah blah, and here he says they're (not in so many words) a bunch of junk except for Bodemeister. I'm sorry he feels that way, as I was feeling a bit more upbeat about the state of the American TB.

[Random aside: I was poking around and found this little gem: Beyer did a workup of Secretariat's stats using an updated methodology, in 2011, and arrived at a 139 rating. In comparison, IHA earned a 101 for this Derby (a very mediocre score). Yup, no doubt that Big Red would smoke every horse living today! :-)]

As I said, before the race I'll Have Another was pretty much off my radar screen so I hadn't looked into his connections. I thought his young jockey's  - a Derby rookie, of all things! - tears of joy post-race were just delightful and I continue to be glad of his success.

On the other hand, I wasn't sure about the vibe I was getting from the trainer, Doug O'Neill... and come to find out, I had reason to feel uneasy. The guy does not exactly have an unblemished past. There have been allegations of misconduct (dumping of broken-down horses in cheap claiming races) and fines for illegal medications (nickname: Drug O'Neill). Yes, I know, that sort of thing is rampant especially in the lower ranks of TB racing, and you're hard-pressed to find even top-ranking trainers who haven't been outed for something, but it doesn't mean it's ever okay and it's especially disappointing in yet another a Derby-winning trainer (koff, Big Brown's?, koff koff). Enough said. I hope the horse continues to do well, and stays healthy, but I'm certainly not going to root for him on behalf of the trainer.

I'm sorry if I've bored anybody silly who's not into TB racing, but this time of year I do start to pay attention. Fair-weather fan, I guess! :-) Sort of like the baseball team here in STL. Unless the Cardinals are actually in the playoffs, my family and I have not got a clue. "Oh, there was a game last night?" is a phrase I have learned not to utter around many, in response to some agitated comment, lest they glare at me like I am the stupidest person on planet St. Louis. Now just for fun, when I was at a sailing club event early Saturday afternoon, I couldn't resist asking one of my buddies if she was watching "the race" later. Blank look. The Derby may reel in many who never ever watch any other horse event, but even that isn't enough for some folks, LOL!

Wait - What, It's SATURDAY!?!?!

Oh, dear. It has recently come to my attention that there's a major equine event taking place in KY this Saturday... might be in Looiville... (that's how you say it, for the unititiated)... might have something to do with red roses, I think? ACK!!!

  Yeah, THAT'S IT!

I am so buried right now in my new job, summer plans including getting DD to college orientation 8 hours away (she's going to Ohio State, following in my footsteps!) and trying to squeeze in a few vacation days, scholarship applications, watching lacrosse games, organizing a Boy Scout troop-wide event, etc. ETC. that I have scarcely found time to breathe, much less think about the Derby. It's not even on my phone calendar yet which is truly disgraceful - but lately I've been lucky to stay one day ahead of anything, much less a week. My family would be grateful if maybe once in the next five days they got an actual home-cooked meal, but hope they're not holding their breath!

So, there's not going to be many hours of contemplation and website-researching to compile the Official RiderWriter Guide to Derby Day this year.* Nope, all you're gonna get is my down-and-dirty, half-formed, "I like these horses" because of XYZ kind of opinions. Sorry if you were counting on me for betting advice! Not to mention, I am also a fan of the current favorites, so I'm not being very original. Oh, well!

Hansen
Raise your hand if you're surprised I like the really grey horse. Hahaha, of freaking course I do. I've liked him ever since last year, along with much of the horseracing world. I think he's just a super-cool horse. I actually don't think Hansen is particularly handsome, but I do see intelligence there, and from what I've heard that is a key component to a really good racer.

Here's a bit of information I gleaned that makes me like his connections, too, especially the doctor for whom he's named:

Dr. Kendall Hansen & Sky Chai Racing

Dr. Hansen has owned racehorses for 30 years. His introduction to horse racing began while working at a Ford Plant where a coworker gave him tips on wagering. He earned enough money playing the ponies to pay for his first year of medical school. He calls champion Hansen his “horse of a lifetime” & donated $12,000 of Hansen’s Breeders Cup Juvenile earnings to New Vocations Racehorse Adoption.

Now, I'm sure that was pocket change to Dr. Hansen but to the good people at New Vocations it was a nice windfall. Yay for him! If more racehorse owners would step up and bring attention to the retraining/retirement operations, encourage people to think about their own TBs retirement, and donate towards that cause, many more former racers could be found new homes.

Union Rags
Lots of sentimental reasons to like this horse, and lots of practical ones, too. The latter include the fact that he's a real bruiser and just looks like he means business on the track. If I saw him barrelling down on me I'd probably think twice about staying in his way. That's important in a bumper-car race like the Derby.

 Yep, he's The Man alright and he knows it. Not to mention, dude has a pretty good turn of foot:  I am willing to overlook the third in the Florida Derby last time out, as he still had plenty in the tank and might just need that little bit of extra track he'll get at Churchill to really show us what he's made of. I sure hope he gets a good post position (draw going on virtually as I write this).

As far as the mushy reasons to like "Rags," (once again I'm assuming an obvious barn name, but who knows, it could be "Bozo" for all I know), they are pretty hard to miss. A big, strapping bay with a white blaze, trained by Michael Matz, a two-year old wunderkind? It just kills me that he has to be a bay and so much like Barbaro. Why couldn't MM have any other color horse who's a front-runner on the Derby trail.... *sigh* It's really rather spooky. Well, I just hope Big B is smiling down upon his "brother" here and will keep him safe. I'm sure the media is going to be all over this on Saturday, and Michael is going to be a bit sick and tired of the comparisons, but they are purely unavoidable.

Another neat thing about Union Rags is his owner, Phyllis Wyeth. She comes from an extremely illustrious TB breeding/racing family – her father owned Gone West, Union Rags’ grandsire – but is “small-time” herself. As she said in this article, “I have four foals. And one makes the Kentucky Derby.” She actually sold the horse as a youngster and then one night, woke up from a dream knowing she just had to buy him back. Just goes to show you that we should pay attention to our subconscious, because on Saturday she will most likely be saddling the  favorite!

Creative Cause
 Yep, can't ignore another grey. It really is just a coincidence that Creative Cause is also highly favored! :-) This guy is actually more to my taste color-wise than the strangely pale Hansen. CC is a beautifully-bred son of a gun and the hope is blood will tell; any great-great-great grandson of Secretariat gets extra points from me, of course.

I read some very interesting background material on this fellow, courtesy of my favorite source, turfwriter Steve Haskin. What a cool story! I like trainers like this Harrington guy; men/women of few words, not legendary or famous, trying to stay out of the spotlight despite their moment of fame but certainly enjoying the incomparable Derby experience in their own way. You just have to root for these folks over someone like Baffert or Lukas who has already won so much.

*  *  *

That about wraps up my pre-Derby coverage. Once again on the first Saturday in May I will be glued to the TV and saying to the family, "One day I'm gonna to be there." The sad thing is I really could have gone this year, in some style, as a friend of a friend offered me a grandstand ticket. The catch, of course, was the price (around $250). That didn't include meals or lodging (though I have a line on another friend of a friend upon whose L'ville couch I might be able to crash) so it was out of reach. In Missouri I shall be, screaming them home!

P.S. My pick for classiest name in the bunch: Went The Day Well. TB naming perfection.

* I said that, and now of course I have spent a couple hours looking at stuff online. Still, nothing like last year!

Who'll Be Wearing The Roses?

Who will be standing in this famous enclosure, at about 6:40 PM Central Time tomorrow?

I have seen this winner's circle in person, on a grey and gloomy day, when all seemed deserted at Churchill Downs and no racehorses were visible. Yet the echos of famous hoofbeats still seemed to reverberate throughout the towering grandstand and on the track where so many hopes and dreams have been realized or reduced to dust. Walking through the tunnel from the paddock, I could only marvel that I was treading where He had: in case I'd forgotten, Secretariat's name appears along with every other Derby winner's around the paddock area. His name, though, is lettered in gold, just like the few others who have managed to complete the seemingly impossible trifecta of the Triple Crown.

So many horses seeking the biggest prize in horse racing have passed through that tunnel. Native Dancer and Northern Dancer - the first, a horse who by all accounts should have won and didn't, the second, a horse who avenged his grandfather by claiming the roses and whose blood is carried by innumerable modern TBs. Pensive and Ponder, a pair of father and son winners. Black Gold, hero of a favorite childhood book which still causes me to burst into tears at the end even after countless re-readings. Monarchos, a gorgeous grey whom I have had the pleasure of meeting and who almost, but not quite, eclipsed Big Red's record time. And of course, the movie-star handsome, phenomenally talented Barbaro, who would go on to break the hearts of racing fans and ordinary people alike. He certainly looked like the next Triple Crown winner... but if there's one thing certain in racing, it's that nothing is ever for sure.

Ponder after his Derby win. I have a wonderful B/W sketch of him hanging on the wall at home,
which I meant to photograph. Not the most famous Derby winner, but a special one.

For 2011, predicting the Derby outcome is especially tough. To quote an expert, "This year is as wide open as I've ever seen it." Every time I think I've made up my mind about who will win, something happens to change it. I have put off writing this post because I've been hashing things over so much. In fact, I'm still prevaricating a bit today. I have a tendency to not follow the beaten path, so one horse you won't be seeing is the current favorite, Dialed In. All I had to hear was "He looks like a sprinter" and I was out.

For the record: NO, I have not been waiting to post because of the Uncle Mo decision. The fact is, I have never been on board with Uncle Mo. For some reason, I just can't like him. This week has not helped, either: one day, we have owner Repole full of braggadocio and carrying on about how the horse is going to blow everyone away, if bettors don't make him the favorite he will (and scarily, he has the $$ to maybe pull that off), blah, blah, blah and the next day, I read in the paper, "Pletcher and Repole still uncertain if Mo will start." In the press conference today Repole said Mo has been off his meds for the suspected GI tract infection for a few days, but doesn't seem to be getting better. Whatever the reason (and I will be waiting with great interest to hear what they finally decide is wrong with him, as three of the top equine vets in the world are not agreeing), I'm glad he's scratched. We don't need another Life At Ten debacle in the racing world! You have to wonder if the racing powers-that-be flat-out told the guys not to run him if there was the slightest doubt...  Pletcher has never been my favorite trainer, and regardless of what the courts/whomever determined, I think it's HIS fault that LAT even stepped on the track that day. Ridiculous.

Anyway, here goes, in order of how I like 'em:
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1) Archarcharch

DAMN. I have to say that again: DAMN! Guess who's my favorite horse, and guess who has drawn practically the worst post position possible, #1? Yep, "Archie" (I hope that's his barn name). At least a horse has won from here in the not-too-distant past of 1986. There are some post positions from which a horse has never won! Unfortunately, the fact that the 1986 winner was Ferdinand seems like a bad omen, too. We know how that poor horse's story ended (In a slaughterhouse in Japan. Yes, - a Derby winner. As far as I'm concerned, about the most disgraceful chapter in the annals of American Thoroughbred racing.)

However, according to Steve Haskin, Archie still stands a chance IF the following happens:
 ~  He can break cleanly
 ~  He can escape the first sixteenth of a mile unscathed
 ~  He can get a good position along the inside somewhere near midpack

That's an awful lot of "ifs," I'm afraid. Nevertheless, I'm sticking with my guy Archx3 here. I think he has the record, the class, the looks and the pedigree to go the distance. I love his rider, Jon Court. (Watched every episode of that "Jockeys" show. His wait for a Derby horse is FINALLY over!) I love the fact that his trainer, "Jinks" Fire is a popular guy and untouched by a whiff of a scandal. I love that the trainer's daughter is married to Jon Court - nothing like keeping it all in the family! (Might make for sticky dinner table conversation, though, if things don't go well.) And I love the way Archarcharch took charge in the Arkansas Derby and looked like he could keep going for another quarter mile. Guess we're going to find out.

2) Soldat

This is the spot where I've been having the most trouble. I've changed my mind three times just today! So much is going to depend on the weather, unfortunately. The likelihood of a track that's going to at least be damp, much less sloppy, has caused me to go with Soldat in the #2 spot today. I think it's fascinating that a liking for sloppy tracks, aka being a "mudder," actually seems to be an inheritable trait in Thoroughbreds. I really don't know why, but if the racing peeps say that's the case, well, I guess I believe it.

Prior to his last race, the Florida Derby, Soldat was looking like a strong contender for this race. He did not finish well in Florida. But "there wuz reasons," as they say. He hated the heat and washed out in the paddock, for starters; I can sympathize with that, not being a big fan of hot days myself. Kentucky is not going to be hot tomorrow, and he's been training well, and prior to the FL Derby he was a consistent up-front horse. I'm willing to draw a line through that race and suggest that he's going to rebound with a vengeance tomorrow.

I've got to have some kind of human interest/back story connection to really "bond" with my Derby picks. Soldat's is a bit tenuous, but I did find one. His grandsire is the wonderful Danzig, who I got to more or less got to meet (along with Monarchos) at Claiborne Farm. "Danny" was an older man by then (it was 2003), and I think pensioned from stud duties, but was still turned out in his own paddock and running around. We visitors were not allowed to go and pet him, though; Danny unfortunately exemplified the stereotype of bad-ass Thoroughbred stallion, who'd just as soon eat you for lunch as look at you. I don't know much about his son War Front, who in turn sired Soldat, but hopefully that ill temper has been diluted a bit.

3) Mucho Macho Man

A very legitimate contender, MMM has also drawn an excellent post position: 13. This happens to be my favorite number, so that sealed the deal for me (if you're beginning to think I'm superstitious, you're right). This tall (over 17 hands!), dark and handsome bay did not win in his last outing, but I think he's sitting on a big race. His connections are interesting, too: his trainer, Kathy Ritvo, had a bad heart and would not be alive today but for the grace of someone donating one for her transplant. Furthermore, if MMM wins, it would be the first Derby for a female trainer - a nice little bonus.

I also like the story about Mucho Macho Man's birth. The mare was due to foal in May, already a late birth for a TB foal. That mare had other plans and held onto her baby for an extra six weeks (crazy mama). She finally unexpectedly foaled while out in a field, and when they found her little colt he appeared to be dead. People worked frantically trying to revive him, and then, to everyone's astonishment, he suddenly leapt to his feet and began running around! No usual tottering steps from the newborn, just get up and go. It was so amazing they nicknamed him "Lazarus." Maybe this long-strided guy will stage a repeat by hanging back in the pack, and then ruuuuunnnnniiiIIInnnng past all the other horses and over the finish line first. But if he runs out of track, you can be sure he'll be my bet in the Belmont.

4) Shackleford

Again, I have been waffling on this choice, but now I'm having a "Shack Attack!" I'm leaning towards Shackleford for a number of reasons.
-  He's huge. I always think (Mine That Bird, notwithstanding) that a bit of size helps a horse in the Derby, which is such a free-for-all, sometimes resembling an equine round of bumper cars at the start. Steve Haskin commented that Shack is a Clydesdale compared to the other horses.
-  He's already won at Churchill Downs. Another mystery to me is why horses "favor" a certain racetrack more than others, and I know that Churchill's surface is one that they can definitely like or dislike. Guess it has to do with the shape of the oval and the footing, but I find it fascinating. It also makes a handy excuse for trainers when a horse doesn't run well: "He didn't like the track." Really, did you ask him? :-) I'm kidding... we horse people know perfectly well that they are quite capable of expressing their likes and dislikes. "Excuse me, but just who do you think you're trying to feed that crappy hay to? Do I LOOK like I will eat Bermuda grass? Bring back the alfalfa, and bring it now, thankyouverymuch."
-  While stabled at the Downs, Shack has worked extremely well in both slop and when the track was faster. Only Mother Nature knows what we're going to wind up with tomorrow.
-  He's a closer, always helpful in the Derby, and was leading in the Florida Derby until Dialed In caught him. I don't think Dialed In has the goods to stretch another quarter mile, so the extra piece of track might suit Shack very nicely (providing he too doesn't run out of gas. *Sigh*)
-  He's a bright chestnut with chrome. You knew that was coming, right?

5) Twinspired

You didn't really think I'd fail to mention the only grey horse in the field, did you? :-) If I was at the Downs tomorrow, you can be sure I'd bet on this fellow just because of his color. Not to mention, I believe he actually has a shot at the race, especially if it's a sloppy track. For the icing on this pretty grey cake, look for jockey Mike Smith, aka "Mikey," my favorite jock along with Jon Court. Mike rode my horse heroine Zenyatta to most of her victories and absolutely adores her. This automatically makes him a Good Guy in my book. Mike certainly knows the Churchill track and would like to get even for Zenny's miss-by-a-nose in the Breeder's Cup.

Twinspired also gets Honorable Mention for the best name of the day. Nothing like dreaming a bit when you fill in the registration papers, eh? Remember, something like 30,000 Thoroughbreds are born every year. Only 20 of them will wind up standing in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May three years later. Those are some pretty daunting odds, but here he is, a horse clearly named with the Kentucky Derby in mind, actually making it in the race. If he wins I'll wish I was a headline writer!

The best name, however, has got to be Pants On Fire. Somebody really had his/her thinking cap on! What a terrific name for a race horse. I've got a friend who's betting on this horse strictly on the basis of his name, and I'm sure he won't be alone.
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So there you have it - my official picks! And it's only taken me, I don't know, about four hours of typing/retyping and a lot of thought time. I really could keep juggling around my #2, 3 and 4 horses but I'm solid with my #1 as Archx3. I feel very sorry for the real turf writers who, according to the USA Today poll I just saw, are pretty much all over the map on their favorite for this race. You can color me completely unsurprised if none of my picks even hits the board and a longshot like, say, Twice The Appeal comes up first. With Calvin Bo-Rail riding him you just never know what might happen!

* Disclaimer: Ever heard the expression, "A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing?" I love TBs and TB racing. But I actually do have only a little knowledge of handicapping (and generally lose more than I win when I'm actually at the track), so please don't run out and bet the farm based on anything I have to say. Not that I think you'd really do that, anyway. :-)

Whistling "The Call To The Post"...

Okay,  I promised a blog about the Run For The Roses, so here goes!

Gosh, who could that be... besides the nice man in the loud pants. :-)

There haven't been too many years in my life when I've missed watching the Kentucky Derby. As a kid it was a much-anticipated event at our house, sometimes complete with guests and my mom mixing up a bunch of Mint Juleps. My most favorite memory of the race from childhood is seeing my hero, Secretariat, win the Derby in record time. He was simply too beautiful to be true. ** Other memorable winners from that time frame who stand out in my memory include Riva Ridge, Canonero II, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Genuine Risk.

During the mid-80s to mid-90s, I know I missed a few Derbies when I was busy being a college student and then working full-time. I was almost totally "away from horses," though I certainly never stopped thinking about them (when Secretariat died in '89 I wrote to the vet at Claiborne asking why they couldn't save him... no reply, alas). For example, I can't conjure up any memories at all of poor Ferdinand, or Sea Hero. Only recently did I learn of Swale's tragic story. How crushing his untimely death was to Claiborne Farm!

The mid-90s brought a resurgence of my interest in the Kentucky Derby. I had become a full-time mom by then, and keeping my sense of self intact meant taking some time to enjoy "my" things. This included keeping my saddle in the living room and watching all of the Triple Crown races. Luckily, some really exciting years came along, with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic all winning the first two, then falling short in the Belmont. For a bonus, Charismatic was a stunning red chestnut with white socks, just like You-Know-Who. I know for sure I've seen every Derby since 1996, when Grindstone won in a photo finish (I'm positive I had been rooting for the grey Skip Away, since that's my usual policy).

Besides Secretariat, though, I don't recall ever knowing much about the runners before Derby Day. With the advent of the Internet I should have been more prepared to watch. However, in the absence of anyone being billed in the media as the "next superhorse," most years I've pretty much been content to turn on the TV the day of the race and see who's running. A few years I've looked at the Derby website or made a bit of an attempt to familiarize myself with the runners, but nothing really involved.

This year has been a different story. What changed? Well, it's a combination of things. I went to the World Equestrian Games last fall, managed to meet Calvin Borel ("Calvin Bo-Rail"/freakishly successful Derby jockey) completely by accident (what, you want THAT story now? Okay... stay tuned - yes, there's a photo!), and spent a blissful couple hours cruising around the Kentucky Derby Museum at the Downs. This all definitely served to put me in the Derby mood.

Then I have to go back to my idol, Mr. They-Finally-Made-A-Movie, and another gentleman, this time human. It goes like this: the Secretariat movie came out and there was an upswing of interest in the big guy. Somewhere, maybe on Facebook, I saw a link to a story about Secretariat by a guy named Steve Haskin. As it turned out, he was a very well-known turf writer, and he also had some wonderful personal photos of Red. Well, anybody who's a diehard Big Red fan has got to be cool, so I "Friended" Steve on FB. I learned he wrote a regular blog for Bloodhorse.com, and started reading it (along with the rest of the website - sure am glad it's free!). What's the main topic of conversation in the late fall and spring? You got it. Next thing I knew, I'm waiting for Mondays and Steve's column, "The Derby Dozen," reading the paper for Derby trail news and combing the Internet for updates on my favorite contenders. I have paid far more attention to this year's Derby than ever before and am terribly excited for Saturday's race.

So who do I like? Check back Friday!


** Watching Red win the Belmont five weeks later is, of course, indelibly stamped in my mind. Just thinking about it gives me chills to this day. How sorry we were that we didn't just get in the car that morning and drive to the track! (Belmont Park was about an hour and a half away, but the traffic was sure to be brutal) Mom said, "Okay, next time a horse wins the Derby and the Preakness we're going." And we did. And that's how I got to see Seattle Slew win the Triple Crown...  (I'll blog about this little adventure for sure another time.)